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Notes and Highlights of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s Live Update September 29, 2020

Notes and Highlights of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s Live Update September 29, 2020
Notes by mr_tyler_durden and Daily Update Team
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Watch here:
Headlines
Full Notes
(continued in stickied comment)
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$BTDG featured in article write-up along with Dick's Sporting Goods >>

The Contrarian Opportunity in Sports Stocks (CHDN, DKNG, BTDG, DKS)
https://biopharmajournal.com/2020/10/01/the-contrarian-opportunity-in-sports-stocks-chdn-dkng-btdg-dks/
Experts continue to see a coming vaccine for the virus behind the pandemic, and hospitalizations and deaths continue to diverge from case numbers, which is another very positive potential signal, despite mainstream clamoring about a looming “twindemic” disaster, as a purported second wave coincides with cold and flu season.
All of this may add up to risk for bear bets in the market, especially those targeting the sports industry, which has been reeling from a lack of public participation in live events. That may represent a potential opportunity for access to long-term growth potential at a discount at present prices.
With that in mind, we take a look at some of the most interesting stocks in the space, including: Churchill Downs Inc (NASDAQ:CHDN), Draftkings Inc (Nasdaq:DKNG), B2Digital Inc (OTCMKTS:BTDG), and Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS).
Churchill Downs Inc (NASDAQ:CHDN) is a prime specimen for bears looking to bet against live events due to a lack of public perception of safety. The company has the double whammy of also being part of the gaming industry, which has taken a big hit as well.
The company bills itself as an industry-leading racing, online wagering, and gaming entertainment company anchored by our iconic flagship event – The Kentucky Derby. The company owns and operates Derby City Gaming, a historical racing machine facility in Louisville, Kentucky. It also owns and operates the largest online horse racing wagering platform in the U.S., TwinSpires.com, and sports betting and iGaming through its BetAmerica platform in multiple states. CHDN is also a leader in brick-and-mortar casino gaming with approximately 11,000 slot machines and video lottery terminals and 200 table games in eight states.
Churchill Downs Inc (NASDAQ:CHDN) most recently announced its plans to open simulcast and historical racing machine operations at Oak Grove Racing, Gaming & Hotel in Oak Grove, Kentucky, to the public on Friday, September 18. According to the release, Oak Grove will debut 1,325 state-of-the-art HRMs with some of the best themes from Ainsworth, Scientific Games and International Gaming Technology. Dining and beverage options include Garrison Oak Steakhouse, two quick serve eateries, a coffee house, sports bar and luxurious lobby bar. The second phase of the Oak Grove project will open in October 2020 and will include a 128-room hotel, equestrian center, amphitheater, and RV Park.
“We have an exceptional team poised to deliver a premier entertainment experience and regional destination for Western Kentucky and nearby Nashville, Tennessee,” said Bill Carstanjen, CEO of CDI. “We are committed to investments like Oak Grove that will help support live racing at Kentucky racetracks by generating larger purses and attracting better horses.”
And the stock has been acting well over recent days, up something like 12% in that time.
Churchill Downs, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHDN) managed to rope in revenues totaling $185.1M in overall sales during the company’s most recently reported quarterly financial data — a figure that represents a rate of top line growth of -61.2%, as compared to year-ago data in comparable terms. In addition, the company has a strong balance sheet, with cash levels far exceeding current liabilities ($699M against $488.2M).
Draftkings Inc (Nasdaq:DKNG) is well aligned with the fate of the NFL at this point. And, given recent news of virus outbreaks for the Titans and Vikings, and possibly others, the stock has held up quite well, but may still have further to squeeze if we see contrarian positives on the virus front in the near term.
In a nutshell, the company provides users with daily sports, sports betting, and iGaming opportunities. It is also involved in the design and development of sports betting and casino gaming platform software for online and retail sportsbook, and casino gaming products. The company distributes its product offerings through various channels, including traditional websites, direct app downloads, and direct-to-consumer digital platforms.
Draftkings Inc (Nasdaq:DKNG) most recently announced that Erik Bradbury has been named the Company’s Chief Accounting Officer and principal accounting officer effective September 10, 2020, reporting to Jason Park, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Bradbury, who brings more than 16 years of experience in corporate accounting to DraftKings, was most recently a Partner with Ernst & Young and served as a Professional Accounting Fellow at Financial Executives International.
“We are thrilled to have Erik join DraftKings at this exciting time,” said Jason Park, DraftKings Chief Financial Officer. “Erik brings a breadth of expertise working with public companies applying U.S. GAAP, IFRS, and SEC reporting requirements, which will enhance our already strong corporate accounting team and help scale this function as the Company continues to grow.”
And the stock has been acting well over recent days, up something like 19% in that time. Shares of the stock have powered higher over the past month, rallying roughly 51% in that time on strong overall action.
Draftkings Inc (Nasdaq:DKNG) brought in over $71 million in its last quarterly financial data.
B2Digital Inc (OTCMKTS:BTDG) is “the premier development league in MMA”. That’s a pretty good spot. Especially considering that the company is verticalizing on the media side, creating strong marketing and distribution agreements to showcase its top talent across the country and around the world.
The company operates live events, pay-per-view media, gyms, and other resources to maximize the development of future stars in the MMA sport. B2Digital operates a number of fighting events brands, including Pinnacle, HRMMA, Strikehard, and others, and has developed and deployed the systems and technologies for the operation of the B2 Fighting Series. This includes social media marketing, event management, digital ticketing sales, digital video distribution, digital marketing, PPV, FTV, merchandise sales, brand management, and financial control systems. B2Digital owns all rights for TV, internet, social media, media, merchandising and trademarks, and branding for the B2Digital companies.
B2Digital Inc (OTCMKTS:BTDG) most recently announced that its Pinnacle Combat 32 MMA event in Farley, Iowa, on Saturday, September 26, featuring a combination of top amateur and pro fights, was another successful venture with a solid pay-per-view presence and sold out in-person attendance.
According to the release, the event drove larger in-person revenue levels on a per-ticket basis due to an increased in-person attendance allowance. The event also generated higher overall margins on each attendee ticket sold than in the Company’s prior event in Alabama.
“Iowa was a huge success that dramatically exceeded our expectations despite the headwinds presented by the difficult context,” commented Greg P. Bell, Chairman & CEO of B2Digital. “That success was driven by strong organic growth as our brand continues to rapidly expand. But it was also likely aided by a sense of pent-up demand for live MMA action. The other big success we saw on Saturday was a very strong performance from our new B2InstaStore marketing program. We gave our fighters, fans, and followers a resource for driving ticket sales and they have responded.”
B2Digital Inc (OTCMKTS:BTDG) has shown strong sales growth, and more importantly, has put in place a number of strategies pointing to accelerating breakout growth ahead, including innovations on the marketing front and an aggressive schedule of live PPV events this fall.
Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS) operates as a sporting goods retailer primarily in the eastern United States. It provides hardlines, including sporting goods equipment, fitness equipment, golf equipment, and hunting and fishing gear products; apparel; and footwear and accessories.
The company also owns and operates Golf Galaxy, Field & Stream, and other specialty concept stores; and e-commerce websites, as well as GameChanger, a youth sports mobile app for scheduling, communications, and live scorekeeping. As of May 02, 2020, it operated 726 DICK’S Sporting Goods stores.
Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS) just announced that it will expand its nationwide footprint with the opening of one DICK’S Sporting Goods store, one combination DICK’S and Golf Galaxy location, and one Golf Galaxy store in September. These new stores will bring approximately 150 collective jobs to communities through the hiring of full-time, part-time and temporary associates for the stores.
According to the company’s release, DICK’S Sporting Goods and Golf Galaxy locations will offer top-of-the-line in-store services and exclusive offerings in apparel, footwear and equipment from the Company’s own private brands, such as DSG, Tommy Armour, CALIA by Carrie Underwood, Field & Stream and Fitness Gear, as well as popular national vendors like Nike, adidas, YETI, The North Face, Callaway and TaylorMade.
The context for this announcement is a bit of a bid, with shares acting well over the past five days, up about 9% in that timeframe.
Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS) managed to rope in revenues totaling $2.7B in overall sales during the company’s most recently reported quarterly financial data — a figure that represents a rate of top line growth of 20.1%, as compared to year-ago data in comparable terms. In addition, the company is battling some balance sheet hurdles, with cash levels struggling to keep up with current liabilities ($1.1B against $2.3B, respectively).
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Beshear, GOO brace for budget struggle; General Assembly, new governor will face big issues over 60 days (article inside)

I get text-only parses of local news through a subscription service my company has purchased. I don't have the original link to this article, unfortunately, but thought it was good information.
*The title is supposed to be GOP not GOO
After three straight legislative sessions working with - and sometimes fighting with - former Gov. Matt Bevin, the Republican supermajority of the Kentucky General Assembly will now labor over an extremely tight budget with a Democratic governor wielding the final pen.
The 2020 legislative session of the Kentucky General Assembly kicks off Tuesday, the fourth consecutive session with Republicans holding over 60% of the seats in each chamber.
What's new this year is the occupant in the Governor's Mansion: Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is set to present a two-year budget proposal to the legislature in late January.
What remains constant in this 60-day session is the extremely tight nature of the biennial budget. While only modest revenue growth is projected in the coming years, obligations to cover public pensions, Medicaid and other costs will sharply increase.
Beshear wants to find common ground and civility amid disagreement with the Republican-dominated legislature, but that will be put to the test as he attempts to make good on campaign promises of increased spending for education with new sources of tax revenue.
Talk has been civil between Beshear and Republican leadership in the legislature since the November election, but Republican Senate President Robert Stivers maintains that the governor's main plan for new tax revenue - legalizing casinos - has no chance in that chamber.
Stivers has told The Courier Journal that while his Republican colleagues aren't opposed to increasing teachers' salaries and funding for K-12 and postsecondary education, money will be hard to find in this budget, and promises made during elections "sometimes can't be fulfilled by the realities of the environment and the economics of that environment."
Here's a look at some of the big issues likely to dominate discussion in the 2020 session of the Kentucky General Assembly:
The budget
Three weeks after Bevin conceded defeat, his administration's budget director laid a grim document at the feet of the new governor's transition team: a memo estimating a $1.1 billion state budget shortfall over the next two fiscal years.
Though the Beshear administration and the nonpartisan Legislative Research Commission haven't yet signed off on the accuracy of those estimates, Jason Bailey - the executive director of the progressive Kentucky Center for Economic Policy - has conceded that the coming two-year budget will be "a real train wreck" and require the most cuts over the past decade if significant new tax revenue isn't created.
State economists have projected revenue to increase by $146 million and $207 million in the next two fiscal years, but this is expected to be quickly eaten up by the rising costs of shoring up the state pension systems, expanded Medicaid, payments for state employees' health insurance and housing the state's 24,000 prison inmates.
On the pension front, the largest plan for state workers is set to have its employer contribution rate increase from 83% to 93% next year.
Kentucky's portion of covering the expanded Medicaid population will increase from 8.5% to the maximum of 10% in 2021 and 2022, which is expected to increase costs by nearly $50 million next year.
According to the Kentucky Association of School Boards, the unfunded mandate of the school safety bill passed in the 2019 session will cost $121 million annually to implement, requiring new resource officers and counselors to be hired.
Additional funds that may have to be identified include a loan of $50 million to assist the University of Louisville's acquisition of Jewish Hospital and $23 million annually to lease, staff and operate a privately owned prison in Floyd County.
Adding to these known costs are the projected costs of several Beshear campaign promises to increase spending on public education - the exact figures of which won't be known until Beshear presents his budget proposal.
However, the memo from Bevin's budget director last month stated that Beshear's pledge to raise public K-12 teachers' salaries by $2,000 each would cost $97 million annually, while increasing funding for postsecondary education and the K-12 per-student SEEK amount by 1% would add an additional $42 million annually. Increasing funding for the Teachers' Retirement System above the required contribution was listed as costing an additional $110 million per year.
The last two-year budget continued to slash funding for most agencies to make way for a dramatic increase in pension contributions. The number of state employees has fallen by about 30% over the past decade as agencies work with less money.
New taxes and revenue
Just how deep the cuts are in the next two-year budget, and how many of the aforementioned budget priorities get funded, depends largely on how much new tax revenue is created by the legislature - if any.
Beshear campaigned on funding most of his new education spending through new tax revenue generated by legalizing casinos through a constitutional amendment. With much of that tax revenue directed toward pensions, Beshear said it would free up $550 million annually for spending on public education, though others have estimated the figure could be as low as $175 million and take years before such revenue is realized.
But if that doesn't happen, as Stivers predicted, the new governor would have to look elsewhere for new revenue.
One of those places may stem from a bill by Rep. Adam Koenig, R-Erlanger, to legalize sports betting in Kentucky. It passed unanimously out of a House committee in 2019 but never made it to a vote on the floor.
Koenig has prefiled a similar bill this year to allow Kentuckians to legally bet on sports, online poker and fantasy sports contests, with one study estimating it would create anywhere from $20 million to $48 million annually in revenue from new taxes, registration fees and licensing fees. He says he is "extremely optimistic" his bill will pass the House this year. In the Senate, Stivers says he is "ambivalent" to sports wagering.
Advocacy groups for city and county local governments are also looking to Frankfort for budget relief through new methods of revenue, hoping state government provides them with new taxing authorities.
The Kentucky League of Cities and Kentucky Association of Counties is making a renewed push for a constitutional amendment to allow a local option sales tax, in which voters via referendum could approve a 1% sales tax increase with revenue directed to a specific project.
Faced with increased pension obligations and corrections costs, medium and large cities will also push for legislation to raise their restaurant tax, which could create an additional $31 million annually for Louisville Metro Government.
A 50-cent tax increase on packs of cigarettes in 2018 has generated over $100 million in tax revenue, and legislators may return to that well this year. A bill prefiled by Rep. Jerry Miller, R-Louisville, would also add an excise tax on the sale of e-cigarettes, which is estimated to raise $35 million a year in new revenue.
The Kentucky Chamber of Commerce and local governments have also endorsed modernizing the revenue model for the Kentucky Road Fund, supporting a bill that would include raising the state gas tax by 10 cents per gallon, imposing new fees on electric vehicles, and raising existing annual fees on all vehicles.
While this proposal would direct more road funding to local governments, it also faces stiff opposition from conservative groups like Americans for Prosperity-Kentucky, which argues that current funding is sufficient and mismanaged by the Transportation Cabinet.
In addition to new tax revenue, there is always a chance the Republican-dominated legislature will pass additional tax cuts that decrease revenue, such as the 2019 bill that cut taxes for banks by $105 million.
Education
While many Republicans still favor new public funding for charter schools and legislation creating tax credits for those who donate to private K-12 scholarship funds, such conservative education policies now have an active opponent in the new governor.
Proposals to increase spending on public schools, expand kindergarten and pre-K, increase teacher salaries and fund the 2019 student safety bill are likely to fill much of the budget and revenue debate.
Education groups may also throw their weight behind efforts to curb the rising use of e-cigarettes among teens, with Miller prefiling a bill to reduce youth access to flavored e-cigarettes and a bill from Rep. Buddy Wheatley, D-Covington, seeking to ban the sale of flavored vape products entirely.
Rep. David Hale, R-Wellington, also prefiled a bill to ban transgender students from using restrooms that align with their gender identities, which he says could save non-transgender students from "potential embarrassment, shame and psychological injury." Past bills instituting such a ban have failed in the General Assembly, and North Carolina, the only state to pass such a law, has since repealed it.
Marijuana
Rep. Jason Nemes, R-Louisville, has once again prefiled his bill to legalize and regulate medical marijuana in Kentucky. The bill received a House committee vote for the first time in 2019, passing nearly unanimously.
But it never came to a vote on the House floor, despite nearly half of the chamber's members co-sponsoring it. Nemes is optimistic the House will pass it this year - although the Senate appears more skeptical.
Also in the House, Rep. Cluster Howard, D-Jackson, has gone a step further to prefile a bill legalizing and taxing recreational marijuana, which he estimates could create up to $800 million of annual revenue.
Howard's bill would decriminalize the possession of less than 1 ounce of marijuana and allow those previously convicted of a marijuana-related misdemeanors to have their offense expunged for free. Permits to grow cannabis plants at home also could be purchased for $250 per year under the bill.
Energy and environment
Four Republican members of the House from the Louisville region have prefiled a resolution asking the Beshear administration and a Louisville pollution agency to examine doing away with the federally mandated use of reformulated gasoline in the city and parts of Oldham and Bullitt counties. The legislators claim it could save motorists $73 million annually at the pumps at no cost to the environment.
As LG&E moves forward with its controversial plan to build a natural gas pipeline through a section of Bernheim Arboretum and Research Forest, Rep. Jim Gooch, R-Providence, has prefiled a bill to crack down on civil disobedience protests to block natural gas pipelines.
Rep. Angie Hatton, D-Whitesburg, has prefiled a bill to require the state Public Service Commission to include rate affordability when determining utility rates.
Constitutional amendments
and gubernatorial powers
Beshear already signed an executive order restoring the voting rights of 140,000 Kentuckians previous convicted of certain nonviolent felonies who had finished serving their sentence. But the movement to make this effort permanent with a constitutional amendment is continuing.
Three Democrats have once again prefiled bills to allow voters to approve such a move through a statewide referendum, which has failed to advance through the Republican Senate over the past decade.
In response to former Gov. Bevin's controversial pardonsduring his final days in office, Sen. Chris McDaniel, R-Taylor Mill, has said he will file a constitutional amendment to limit a governor's power to pardon at the very end of his or her term.
Other efforts may come forward to limit the executive powers of Beshear, such as a bill sponsored by Stivers that would take the power to appoint the secretary of the Transportation Cabinet away from the governor. Republicans prefiled the bill before Beshear was victorious, saying it was not specifically targeting Beshear.
Critical of Beshear's restructuring of the state Board of Education, Stivers has also floated the idea of the legislature preventing governors from completely replacing boards.
By, Joe Sonka, Louisville Courier Journal
Copyright 2020 The Courier-Journal All Rights Reserved
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Review Of Hawaii And NCL's Pride Of America

I just got back and a friend who is taking the exact same cruise and is also cost conscious asked me to give him all my lessons learned. I figured you all might benefit even if some of this information isn't strictly about cruising. I'm going to ask my travel companions to review it (first time in Hawaii and first time cruising) to see if they have anything to add.

Getting There And Getting Around

Air Fare
With Southwest now offering tickets to Hawaii, I expect the competitive market to drop prices across the board but unless you are fortunate enough to live on the west coast in a city with flights that fly direct, air fare can be pricey. I had to get 4 people there round-trip (2 from rural Maine, 1 from Louisville Kentucky and 1 from the Baltimore/D.C. area). I ended up signing up for the Chase Sapphire credit card (annual fee waived for the first year) and the Alaska Airlines credit card that gave me a buy one/take one sign up offer. My total air fare cost was $2400. Besides the credit card, there was no secret other than monitoring the prices as far in advance as possible to see what typical prices are and then striking when there was a decent sale. I would also mention following Scott's Cheap Flights on the off chance a deal becomes available for when you were already planning on traveling.
Ground Transportation
We flew into Waikiki on Tuesday (cruise started on Saturday) so I got a rental car through Autoslash. The total cost for a mid-size for 4 days was $176 and ended up being from Alamo. While I feel this was a good deal as I had four people, if you're not 100% sure you will need it - you can probably get by with an Uber, taxi or even a hop on/off bus (see excursions later). Many excursions had an option for hotel pickup/drop-off.
Probably the best deal I found was Star Taxi which only charged $25 for up to 4 people one-way to/from the cruise terminal and not much more for other locations. Call 1 hour before you need the service.
Parking
Parking is EXPENSIVE so be sure to do a lot of research if you plan on renting a vehicle.

Oahu

General In your mind, you have this idea of what Hawaii is going to be like. Oahu (specifically Honolulu/Waikiki) is not it. It is very over developed and crowded. Many places are run-down because investors have purchased the property but have chosen to wait until conditions are more favorable to develop. There is a very large homeless population in Hawaii overall but I was shocked by the number of shanty towns and abandoned vehicles doubling as homes I saw on Oahu.
Excursions
Recommendations/Notes

Pride Of America

I have to be honest, this was hands down the most expensive cruise I have taken and it was the worst cruise ship. I had a great time but there was a lot left to be desired.
Update: One thing that really stood out as being a good thing is that the room had 3 US standard outlets!!!
Why Does It Cost So Much
Hint: You should get the NCL Mobile App. It includes dinner reservations, account charges, dinner reservations, deck plans, passenger to passenger chat for an additional fee ($10 vs Carnival's $5) and other nifty features.
Observations
I was astounded by the number of first time cruisers I saw (based on their ship card color). Because so many of the employees were American, I was also surprised by how many told me that they were on their first contract and wouldn't be back. The people (both employees and passengers) were incredibly friendly and most everyone seemed to be having a good time. I didn't see long lines at guest services. I mentioned earlier how this was the worst ship I had been on - and, while true, shouldn't give you the impression that I didn't have a great time. For my traveling companions, they had nothing to compare it to and other than the entertainment - they had no complaints at all and loved it.

Day 1 & 2 Maui (overnight)

If you have ever been on a Caribbean cruise and you didn't feel like paying for an expensive excursion you could always just walk off the ship and go to a beach or a shopping district or a friendly bar - something. This is not the case in Maui. Where the Pride Of America docks there is absolutely nothing (it took 10 minutes to walk out of the port with chained link fence on both sides only to end up about another 10 minutes away from a strip mall). I do want to point out that the strip mall did have a few artisans selling things out on the sidewalk but this was far from what you will be used to at other locations.
So what to do instead?

Day 3 Hilo Hawaii

This is the first of two days on the island of Hawaii and it is on the eastern (very wet) side of the island. Normally doing two excursions in one day is a not recommended. I would make an exception here because the Botanical Gardens are not to be missed. It is a short excursion (2.5 hours), is relatively inexpensive (you can even do it on your own) and is offered at multiple times allowing you to get another excursion in.
Recommendations

Day 4 Kona Hawaii

The other side of the island is a stark contrast to Hilo as it is dry/desert climate. It is the only tender port on the cruise. Unfortunately, we didn't fare very well here on excursions but shopping and beer was good.
It has been on my bucket list to be in a real submarine and go over 100 feet to below the surface to the ocean floor. That's what 3 of us did here in Kona and while I am glad that I can now say I have done it (105'), the experience itself was underwhelming. To not interfere with the wildlife, the sub doesn't use any artificial lights nor does anything to attract the fish to your windows. This means almost everything is a monochrome blue (the color red doesn't exist at this depth for instance). It's also nearly impossible to get nice photos out the windows even though they are clear enough - just not the right conditions. Now, I met a guest back on the ship that said he had a phenomenal time on a sub that wasn't sponsored through NCL but I'm not sure what it was.
The other guest in my party decided to go on the Gold Coast & Cloud Forest excursion and was also not impressed. The gold supposedly comes from the Hawaii state fish (yellow trigger fish also known as humuhumunukunukuāpuaʻa) but apparently they haven't been plentiful enough to turn the coast gold for years. She also said if she was a coffee drinker, she probably would have enjoyed it more (they are famous for their coffee).
Recommendations

Day 5 & 6 Kauai (Overnight)

Remember how I said you have this ideal image in your head of what Hawaii is and Oahu doesn't meet it. Kauai exceeds it - I fell in love and if I ever go back, I will just fly directly here and stay on this island - it is that good.
I am not going to suggest you do anything other than exactly what I did because I couldn't possibly imagine having a better time.
Recommendations
Now, there's more to the story than just these two excursions. First, since you're overnight you can stay out as late as you want. I asked our tour guide where an affordable place to get good beer close to the ship was. She recommended The Nawiliwili Tavern (or just the Tavern). It happens to be a 2 minute walk from one of the free shuttle stops and they have great pizza, beer and pool. Secret I learned this is also where a lot of the crew from the ship hang out after they get off at 9PM so if you want to have a real conversation and ask real questions - this is the place to do it. Once the bartender realized I was into craft beer and trying all they had, she told me about a brew pub not too far up the road that I really wanted to try but ran out of time.

Napali Coast (still day 6)

The cruise ship leaves port early (circa 2PM) and instead of heading to Honolulu backtracks around Kauai. There is a portion of the island that's only reachable by air (helicopter) or by sea (cruise ship) and I was fortunate enough to do both. Actually, our pilot said that a few of the beaches can be reached by a hiking 11+ miles but it isn't an easy hike. In any event, this is where the opening scenes of Jurassic Park were filmed if I remember correctly - utterly gorgeous. My pilot also let me in on a little secret - that the captain times the cruise ship to sunset when the coast is all lit up in spectacular colors so be out on deck with camera ready.

Day 7 - Honolulu (Pearl Harbor & City Tour)

I made a big mistake here. I booked a late flight so I could go to Pearl Harbor and then get dropped off at the airport. We had already done the Circle Island Tour and none of the other offerings were of interest. This was a mistake for two reasons.
Reason 1: Exhaustion
After having spent 5ish days in Waikiki and then taking a 7 day cruise, we were wiped out and really didn't have the stamina to really take it all in.
Recommendations
Reason 2: Airport
If you have a late flight home, I'm sorry. All of your checked bags have to be screened by agriculture (certain plants are not allowed to leave the state) which is airline specific and unless that airline is running flights all day (looking at you Alaska), then you will have to wait for them to open before you can even check in. While you wait, there is essentially no place to eat (Starbucks and a bar that serves hot dogs for $12.50 - yes, $12.50). I recommend you keep some food with you for this reason. They do offer a baggage hold service but the prices were ridiculous (4 checked bags for 24 hours was $100). Sorry if it seems like I am whining - it was the end of a long trip and I was returning to reality.

Update: Viator

In this post, I have provided a number of links to NCL's excursions, directly to the vendor and also to Viator. Viator is part of Tripadvisor and generally speaking, you can trust the reviews. On most of the bookings, you can cancel for a full refund up to 24 hours in advance. They are competitively priced and you can usually get a discount. For instance, new customers will get offered a 10% discount off their first purchase. Companies like Ebates and TopCashBack will offer an additional 3 to 6% cash back as well. Use a credit card that gives back 2-4% on travel and it can really reduce the price. I haven't had too much trouble figuring out what vendor was being used through Viator so you could just book with them direct too and just use them as a way to find fun things to do and use the reviews to distinguish between what's good and what's not.
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2015 Offseason Review Series: Day 2 (Cleveland Browns)

Cleveland Browns

Division: AFC North

Intro

I don't think I need to pontificate too long one where the Cleveland Browns stand coming out of 2014. The Browns hit a promising 7-4 record after week 12, in spite of key injuries to Alex Mack and Jordan Cameron, with Josh Gordon suspended, and well-hyped rookie QB Johnny Manziel sitting on the bench. Most seasons, this would be considered a success of the new coaching staff and front office, and a sign that maybe the team was heading in the right direction for the first time in the Jimmy Haslam era, but things ended in a complete trainwreck by most accords: hometown hero QB Brian Hoyer wasn't playing up to snuff and would be benched for Manziel, who actually played worse. The lack of depth and internal drama within the coaching staff and front office became the headlines, and to make matters worse, Manziel would manage to find himself injured only 7 quarters into his football career during the Week 16 encounter against the Panthers.
Cleveland slammed the brakes hard and ended with a 7-9 record, with more questions than answers about the state of the team and the front office than ever. Hell, for most of this offseason, people have genuinely been wondering if Cleveland wasn't going to go out of its way to draft a replacement QB for Johnny Manziel, who barely played 2 games. If that doesn't tell you all you need to know how rough this season ended…
Having lived through awful regime after awful regime in the ownership (Randy "Aston Villa Enthusiast" Lerner), front office (Phil "How Much Can We Trade To Dallas" Savage, Carmen "Can't Wait to Go Back to Cali" Policy, and Mike "Worst Draft Gambler Of All Time" Holmgren), and the coaching staff (Butch "Arrogant Fuck" Davis, Romeo "Carl Winslow" Crennel, Eric "Mangina" Mangini, and Pat "Incompetent Shitbrick" Shurmur), all I'm hoping to get coming out of this offseason is a sign that things are on the right path for the first time in a while, and they may just be.

Coaching Changes

  • January 8, 2015: Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan leaves the Cleveland Browns after disagreements with the front office.
  • January 9, 2015: QB’s coach Dowell Loggains is fired.
  • January 15, 2015: WR’s coach Mike McDaniel leaves the Browns in a mutual end.
  • January 21, 2015: The Browns hire John DeFilippo as the new Offensive Coordinator from Oakland.
  • January 28, 2015: The Browns hire Joker Phillips as the new WR coach, his first stint coaching in the NFL.
  • January 31, 2015: The Browns hire Kevin O’Connell as the new QB coach, his first stint coaching in the NFL
So the Browns had a busy January. >_>
The issues with Kyle Shanahan and the Cleveland Browns became so prevalent near the end of his run that they nearly eclipsed the Manziel discussion (at least locally) during the 5-game losing streak to end the 2014 campaign. He clearly didn’t see what the front office saw in Johnny Manziel and there was a lack in synergy between him, Mike Pettine, and the decision makers. It was also clear that Dowell Loggains might have been a contributor to the problems, stemming all the way back to draft night rumors that he’d been texting Johnny Manziel about “wrecking this league”. The move was inevitable, but all things considered, the Browns went from young offensive minds to more young offensive minds in their replacements.
While losing Shanahan’s “prodigal” offensive coaching ability hurt, gaining John DeFilippo, who had been instrumental in working with a young Mark Sanchez in his best season and seemed to have a positive early influence on Derek Carr, certainly softened the blow. DeFilippo fits with what Pettine wants in hard-nosed guys, and hopefully will be a catalyst towards some change on and off the field with this group. Adding Joker Phillips, who is seemingly eternally better suited as a coordinator, and Kevin O’Connell, who seems to be exclusively working to find young talent a QB, might have a set-up in Cleveland made for beyond 2016. It's not a sexy group of coaches, but they will be capable; inexperienced nevertheless, but still capable.

Free Agency

Coming off a mass coaching exodus on the offensive side of the ball, it's no surprise a lot of change in on-field personnel was coming this offseason as well:

Players Lost

Player Position New team
Brian Hoyer QB Texans
Jim Leonard SS Retired
Miles Austin WR Eagles
Jordan Cameron TE Dolphins
Ahtyba Rubin DL Seahawks
Jabaal Sheard OLB Patriots
Buster Skrine CB Jets
Paul McQuistan OL Released
Spencer Lanning P Buccaneers
Nick McDonald OL Released
Christian Yount LS Released
Major Losses: Brian Hoyer, Jordan Cameron, Ahtyba Rubin, Jabaal Sheard, Buster Skrine
When you’re losing 5 freaking starters from 2014, it’s never a good thing.
Brian Hoyer may have completely fallen apart in the second half of last season, but it’s become more and more difficult to determine where it was lost; was it coaching? Did Hoyer just go cold or was he never that good to begin with? Were we in love with the idea of him more than what he really was; a hometown boy who was peaking too quickly? Any way you dice it, after a dismal finish, Hoyer left, hopeful for greener pastures in Houston. When Hoyer had a healthy offensive line and was on point, he wasn't setting the world on fire, but looked capable enough to work as a system QB. Maybe he'll never go on to be more than a backup in the longer term, but with what limited time he had, Brian Hoyer, in spite of a 19-19 TD/INT line, was 10-6 as a starter, which by most counts is a playoff team. I don't think anyone wishes him ill, we just wish he'd been more 2013 Brian Hoyer.
He would be followed out after a, frankly, confusing free agency mess over Pro Bowl TE Jordan Cameron, which involved Charles Clay ending up in Buffalo and Cameron turning around after an offer from Cleveland and signing with Miami the same day. I heard this entirely play out on the radio as our hosts seemed to have less of a clue than I did as to what was going on. Any way you dice it, Cameron's venture out to free agency was not a graceful exit, but Cameron was an excellent athletic target when he was healthy. He removes a big piece from the passing game and if Miami can tap into him and keep him on the field, he can be a top-tier TE.
On the other side of the ball, some would argue that Ahtyba Rubin became disposable after a somewhat pedestrian 2014, only logging 28 tackles on what was considered a significantly poor defensive line, but Rubin was a leader on defense since 2008.
The same could be said about Jabaal Sheard, who slipped a bit in production last year but was locked into an odd spot between Krueger and Mingo in the pass rush, is only 26 years old, and still has potential for success in New England; and the fact that he was rather active with the Cleveland fan base only makes it a tougher.
Buster Skrine at any given time was the most beloved and most reviled CB in Cleveland Browns history, but he earned his keep in 2014 with a strong campaign in spite of young challengers at CB behind him.
Minor losses: Jim Leonard, Spencer Lanning
More than anything, Jim Leonard was a good dude, who was an impactful player on special teams, with a wealth of knowledge for younger players. But retirement comes to all. There are still some great veterans on this squad, but at the end of the day, solid support from well vested veterans does matter.
I'll miss you forever, Spencer Lanning.

Players Added

Player Position Old team
Josh McCown QB Buccaneers
Brian Hartline WR Dolphins
Dwayne Bowe WR Chiefs
Tramon Williams CB Packers
Randy Starks DL Dolphins
Rob Housler TE Cardinals
Thad Lewis QB Texans, Bills, Browns, fuck, maybe Argonauts?
Andy Lee P Niners (Trade)
Major Additons: Tramon Williams, Randy Starks, Brian Hartline, Dwayne Bowe
The Browns were sitting on a ton of draft picks and still had a lot of talent (when that talent decided to play...looking at you Justin Gilbert) from last year's draft. They needed to get younger while providing leadership on defense, and that's what two of these signings did. The other two were simply pick-ups that were by utter necessity. But there was still cap space to be shed by the Browns, and although they approached FA lightly (so as to accumulate compensatory picks in 2016)
Tramon Williams got himself $21 million because if you're a CB, Mike Pettine wants you on his team. I believe we currently have brought 94 CB's to camp this year. But beyond Pettine's depth-in-the-secondary fetish, Williams is a solid cover-man who can help alongside Joe Haden to add veteran leadership to the motley crue of CB's. Yes, he's 32, and he did get a bit big of a pay-day, but at this point, if you want Pierre Desir, Justin Gilbert, and Ka'Waun Williams to reach their potential (that's not even counting the other 2 freaking CB's we drafted), you need more than Haden to get them there with Skrine departing.
In the same vein, Randy Starks. Starks isn't going to set the world on fire on that defensive line, but he will likely not be asked to be the anchor with some other additions this offseason in the draft, and can provide guidance to the young players on a defensive line that was frankly...well, shit, and has been shit for any number of reasons for several years. Be it the health of the team or the lack of talent, stopping the run was a key point from this offseason, and the Browns actually took action to fix it.
Rounding out the big pieces on the FA class, your 2011 fantasy WRs! Neither Dwayne Bowe nor Brian Hartline has been anything more than above-average in their long-term careers, and there's any number of things you could blame that on; poor QB's, poor coaching staffs and offensive schemes, or their own limited ability as WR’s, but both bring one thing Cleveland lacks; veteran targets. With the departure of Miles Austin and...well, something else we'll get to shortly, the Browns have no weapons for whoever ends up throwing the damn ball aside from slot guys like Andrew Hawkins and Taylor Gabriel. Even if the Browns get very little in the long term from either guy, they are going to be the Browns' receiving corps in 2015; and both have plenty to prove.
Minor Additions: Josh McCown, Rob Housler, Andy Lee
Let's be clear: the signing of Josh "It's Josh Fucking McCown, Do We Even Need a Nickname?" McCown was not because the Browns thought he was some incredible QB who could be the answer. He's 34, he's coming off an awful season, and I think we all know the McCown "career backup" legacy he and his brother Luke have created. Honestly, McCown is here to be a quiet backup. Although he may be called on to start a bit this season, he's not here to be the long-term QB. The Browns fielded him a bit extra money because of the cap room, but he's here as a very, very short bridge to either seeing what we have in Johnny Manziel or "Cardared Hackookiel" next year. And that's fine. I'm not a huge fan of it on the whole, but in that sense, it at least is rooted in some reason.
Another injury-bugged TE in Rob Housler, Housler at least offers some hope of finding a target at the position for a team that lacks it. And he's only 27; he's still got a little time to get it right.
The trade to the 49ers was an odd one (mainly because if I wanted a special teams player from San Francisco, it would be PHIL WE MISS YOU) but Andy Lee is a damn good punter who will do one thing; facilitate the defense. If the offense is struggling as it seems they may, Lee should be able to pin the opposing team deep in their own territory to allow the defense to try and make them make mistakes.

Draft

...wait, there was supposed to be an angry rant here. Where'd I put that?
....no. No fucking way. The Browns didn't completely muck up this draft?
Player Round, Pick Analysis
Danny Shelton, DT, Washington 1.12 The main commitment from the Browns this year was to fix the run D, and Feast Mode is here to do just that. Shelton is a big, BIG boy at 339lbs, and although most expect him to be a 2-down player, he's an animated, deceptively quick anchor NT who happened to do his workouts for the draft in a fucking lava lava. He then won the hearts of America when he attempted to hit Goodell with the belly-to-belly suplex. We already love this dude, his story is incredible, and I hope he becomes a fixture on the defensive line for years, maybe even as a 3-down player if his weight keeps in check. It's high time we got the D-Line right in the long term.
Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State 1.19 In the bar I was sitting in watching on draft night, almost everyone walked out when the Browns passed on Breshad Perriman. Perriman may turn out to be a fantastic WR, but this pick was honestly way smarter than Farmer's gotten credit for: One, it provides a safety net for if Alex Mack opts to leave Cleveland after this offseason, as Erving was a more than capable C at FSU. Two, it pushes Mitchell Schwartz and John "Get Pushed Back Seven Yards Every Play" Greco into competition on the right side of the line. If you aren't elite, shoring up the lines is never a bad idea, and this was an investment with not just 2015 but 2016 and beyond in mind. That's something you don't see in Cleveland often.
Nate Orchard, OLB, Utah 2.19 A theme of this draft was "Let's pass on Jaelen Strong and make JohnnyFire angry", but we made up for that getting a guy who was just an awesome fit. Orchard may have been a bit of a "one-year sensation", but he also fits exactly the character and play style that Pettine is looking for in the pass rush and will quickly make up for the loss of Jabaal Sheard, as well as pushing Mingo and Kruger to keep up. This seemed so obvious even dumb me was able to predict it on the /Browns contest this year.
Duke Johnson, RB, Miami 3.13 At this point in the draft I'd accepted the Browns were just not going to take a WR, especially since now all of the ones with any hype (aside from Sammie Coates) were well off the board. That said, Duke Johnson possess speed that Terrance "Instagram Failure" West lacks and escapability that Isaiah "Lunchables Enthusiast" Crowell lacks, and he can catch passes. Yes, the Browns maybe didn't need Duke Johnson, but who cares; if there's a special player available as the BPA, you get him, and if Johnson lives up to his potential, he could be a huge get for the Browns.
Xavier Cooper, DL, Washington State 3.32 Much was made post-draft of how heavily the Browns scouted the Pac-12, and this is true when they garnered (to some) the best two D-Line prospects in the conference. Cooper actually fits a bit more of the mold of Randy Starks, and although he is a raw talent, he'll have a great mentor and get time to develop. To sneak up and grab a second highly-touted piece to stop the run and improve the Front 7 was incredibly solid of this FO.
Ibraheim Campbell, SS, Northwestern 4.16 Oh hey, the guy I always grabbed using the First-Pick simulator to bump up my final score in the 4th round! Truth is that Donte Whitner isn't going to be around forever, and Campbell was a strong S prospect (albeit in a weak class) that could learn well from the veteran, and will contribute heavily on special teams with the loss of Jim Leonard.
Vince Mayle, WR, Washington State 4.24 Okay, Farmer, let's talk a moment. I love what you did with this draft. I really do. But this is the first WR you opt to take? Yeah, Mayle has prototypical size, and yeah, he could certainly be molded into a solid weapon due to his raw athleticism. But in order to get to this point, you left on the board Devante Parker, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Devin Smith, Dorial Green Beckham, Devin Funchess, Tyler Lockett, Jaelen Strong, Chris Conley, Sammie Coates, Ty Montgomery, Jamison Crowder and Justin Hardy. Many of those guys I honestly didn't even want, but this pick sadly reeked of just being too-little-too-late. But I'm gonna root for Super Smash Bros. Mayle and hope he develops quickly.
Charles Gaines, CB, Louisville 6.13 Mike Pettine has a fetish for CB’s, we know this. Gaines lacks a lot in size, and that's the main thing that kept him from getting over the hump, but working in the slot and using his speed, he could be beyond just a depth or special teams guy when called upon. An okay depth move all things considered.
Malcolm Johnson, TE/HB, Mississippi State 6.19 With the Browns going run-first in 2015, you need to get someone who can work better as a FB than...god, I can't even make a joke here because I can't remember the name of a Browns FB to save my life. Johnson will probably end up being asked to be an H-Back TE who could slot in at FB and help open lanes, or push forward.
Randall Tefler, TE, USC 6.22 Another Pac-12 find. I wasn't a huge fan on many TE's in the draft class, although I would've liked to see the Browns make an effort to get someone more dynamic. That said, Tefler is a solid blocker who will likely be used to add depth/replace Gary Barnidge or Jim "Forgot About" Dray in the blocker TE role. If nothing else, a low-risk depth move.
Hayes Pullard, ILB, USC 7.2 A very patient player who seemed to lack the killer instinct that other ILB prospects showed on the field, Pullard this late was a decent pick-up. He'll have a good mentor in Dansby and he can function well as a role-player and special teams guy.
Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon 7.24 I was actually watching the pre-Kentucky Derby at a casino in Cleveland when this pick was made, and there was an audible "HOLY CRAP!" from so many people around when the pick was finalized. There will be a lot asked for Captain IEO (He needs to moonwalk for his touchdown pick-6 return celebrations while "Another Part of Me" plays, real talk.) to get back to full strength in 2016, but if Ifo manages to get back to there and meets his expectations, this secondary could be fucking insane. Haden, Williams, a ton of young talent, and a guy who would've been a first round pick if he'd come out one year earlier. There was no risk in this; this late in the draft, see if you can't find your next Richard Sherman.
The main thing we didn't touch in this draft was WR, and yes, that list from earlier is true. I would've liked to see us add a pure WR1 here, but the commitment was clearly to round out this defense, which is exactly what the FO did. It was almost refreshing; a draft that wasn't going for splash players, but was made as honest-to-god building blocks for 4-5 years down the line. Using foresight in a Cleveland Browns draft, who'd have thought that was fucking possible?
Note: I also did a defending the draft piece which sums up most of what I said. Check out the whole series over at /NFL_Draft.

Other Offseason News That Affected The Team

...okay, fuck.
  • Johnny Rehab: Johnny Manziel basically hit the wall, and hit it hard, starting with a party on the Friday night before the season ending game in Baltimore, which resulted in a ton of drama and punishments for multiple members of the team. After every hot take that could ever be made about Manziel's ability to succeed and his potential dependency on the party life, Manziel finally checked into rehab on February 4th. I'm not sure where Manziel goes from this, honestly. Since his check out from rehab, he did have what seemed like a majonon-incident at a golf course, but he also left his party-enabling lavish apartment at "The 9" downtown to move to the suburbs, dropped the "Johnny Football" moniker, and by most accounts seems to be working his ass off after a first season that went absolutely off the rails. The Browns have dug themselves into a Manziel shaped hole, and 2015 is going to either tell us if Manziel can dig his own way out, both on and off the field, or just keep digging deeper until the Browns have to give up and try again in 2016. We'll see.
  • Text-gate-gate: Ray Farmer will be suspended for the first 4 games for sending texts down to the field discussing play calls. I'm conflicted, because it feels like Farmer is a good guy with an eye for late-round talent and UDFA's, who was jerked around in 2014 by Old Man Haslam. Was he doing Haslam’s stooge work here, or was he just passionate about righting the ship? Just...Ray, I like you for the most part. Please just stay out of trouble for 2015. I don't wanna turn over this organization yet.
  • Josh Gordon Suspended...Again: ..........sigh. Josh Gordon gets caught drinking on a plane after the regular season had ended during a trip to Vegas and gets tested upon landing. He didn't know he couldn't drink until the end of the entire season, and writes a passive aggressive letter about how he doesn't have a substance abuse problem and the entire team starts getting fingers pointed at, even drawing "Uncle" Phil Taylor into a response. Whether you think Gordon is an addict or not, it doesn't matter; he's been through the ringer and still doesn't fucking know better. If he's back in 2016 and can keep his moronic ass on the field, fantastic, because the Browns need him, but if not, this might be the end. Inevitably, he'll go win a Super Bowl somewhere else, we know this. But if you're trying to change the culture, you can't let this guy fuck up again, and they did. This many chances to play in the rules of the system he backed into on his own accord, it's frustrating to watch. He's got Megatron-level talent but his biggest enemy seems to be himself.
  • The new Browns, Same As the Old Browns: This year was Nike's rebranding for Cleveland, and things did not start well with the new logo, which was the same logo with a brighter gradient in spite of media hype and some internal push for how exciting the rebrand would be. It resulted in an insane amount of mockery early on as a result. Although the "brown was unchanged", the uniforms were not, and although the damn stripe that cuts off just before the shoulder pisses me off, they've grown on me a bit, so kudos on that much. Hopefully this is a catalyst to the culture change that front offices and fans in Cleveland have been dying for.

Projected Starting Lineup

Offense

QB: Josh McCown, followed by Johnny Manziel - Kind of hilarious that every pundit is suggesting that Josh McCown is being asked to be the long term starter for Cleveland as a 34 year old career backup, but I have a feeling that he'll be starting off the season. But at the end of the day, it's all down to Manziel to play this season. You must see what we have in this kid and take the good and the bad, because learning you have nothing is better than blindly hoping you have something. Or McCown.
RB: Duke Johnson - If you read into camp, Duke Johnson has been playing his dick off. I think that the RB1 role is going to be fluid with Crow and West, but Duke's pass-catching ability might move him into a prominent role faster than expected.
FB: Malcolm Johnson - We’ve got nobody else.
WR1: Dwayne Bowe - Bowe is the closest thing on this team to being a pure WR1 right now in the absence of veteran help or a true star, so he'll have this role.
WR2: Brian Hartline - Hartline worked well as a WR2 in Miami and he'll be called upon to be more of the same here. I expect Vince Mayle to be waiting in the wings.
Slot WR: Andrew Hawkins - After getting a...well, absurd contract in the steal from Cincinnati in 2014, Hawkins lived up to what was needed in the absence of big-bodied WR's in 2014 and should continue that trend. Taylor Gabriel and Travis Benjamin will be waiting.
TE: Rob Housler - This is honestly the biggest toss-up coming out of camp stories, because we don't know if Housler can truly make the jump this year. But I'd venture that Housler will be the top option with Barnidge getting some other opportunities and TefleDray getting blocking reps.
LT: Joe Thomas - ...duh.
LG: Joel Bittonio - ...yawn.
C: Alex Mack - ...zzz.
RG: Cameron Erving - Erving has been exponentially better as an inside lineman. I figure he will be moved between RG and RT as needed to see what sets work best with Greco and Schwartz, but I think he is ultimately an upgrade over Greco. His next best option would be to be at RT, and to move Schwartz into the RG role.
RT: Mitchell Schwartz - I believe this is his contract year, so he'll have a lot to prove either here or at RG, that he’s beyond his 5th round evaluation.

Defense

LDE: Desmond Bryant - Desmond played a tough 2014 campaign, and although Cooper will probably push him for this spot (along with Armonty Bryant), I think Desmond will have it locked down to start.
NT: Danny Shelton - Feast Mode is having a luau.
RDE: Randy Starks - Veteran presence wins out. Xavier Cooper might see some play time, but I don't see him completely lapping Starks. Expect Phil Taylor to also be in the mix here, if not at NT.
LOLB: Barkevious Mingo - Yes, a baby did eat my Mingo. Hopefully he can continue his progress into this season, because he needs to with Orchard nipping.
LILB: Karlos Dansby - A veteran leader coming off injury who should continue to be a spark in the LB corps.
RILB: Craig Robertson - I'd like to see Robertson make a stronger push this season into becoming a more well-rounded open-field defender, but he’ll do for now.
ROLB: Paul "T-1000" Kruger - THOSE EYES
CB1: Joe Haden - Haden's emergence as a leader and great talent at the CB position locks him in.
CB2: Tramon Williams - Tramon is going to have to battle to keep this all year; you've got a hungry bunch behind him in Gilbert/Williams/DesiGaines.
FS: Tashaun Gipson - Beyond the contract struggle, Gipson has been rock solid at the FS position lately and hopefully continues his progression.
SS: Donte Whitner - Twitter Troll Supreme

Special Teams

P: Andy Lee - Put 'em on the 1 yard line, Andy.
K: Not Billy Cundiff - At this point, fucking anybody. If I had to watch Billy Cundiff botch one more close distance FG I was going to lose my fucking mind.
KR: Marlon Moore - Moore's role on this team is pretty much exclusively this, but Duke Johnson and Travis Benjamin will likely challenge him. I hope Benjamin can turn back the clock and get his KR status back to the shape it once was.

Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses

Position Group Strengths Weaknesses
QB Manziel is still young. McCown won't do anything too stupid. Manziel is still a rookie. McCown won't do anything too smart.
RB Depth. Three dynamic backs bringing something different to the table with each. Lack of experience; two sophomores and a rookie.
WTE Lots of guys with a lot to prove. That proof needs to come fast: no proven talent, no proven game-changers, no proven big-bodied true WR1.
O-Line Depth has been added, the left side is fucking impeccable, could be a top 10 line this year if all are healthy. The weakest point (Mitchell Schwartz) will be pretty weak comparatively.
D-Line Heavy investment in developing the Lake Erie Buffet Line with Starks, Shelton, and Cooper. A few odd-men out in the rotation, need to get Shelton to speed quick.
LB Corps Strong veteran presence, Mingo getting better. But if the pass rush does improve, is it time to revamp again?
Secondary Deep as fuck, young, two strong starters and solid nickel options. I still wouldn't want to run sets with Haden not on the field; where does Gilbert fit?
Special Teams We don't have Billy Cundiff anymore. Our kicker is not Phil Dawson.

Training Camp Battles to Watch

QB - Manziel vs McCown: The obvious answer here. Will Manziel make enough progress to wrestle away the starting job from McCown before we need to go with McCown being forced into high-pressure situations? COULD CONNOR SHAW EMERGE AND DESTROY SOME WORLDS AND SHOCK EVERYONE?!
RB - Johnson vs West vs Crowell: Early line says Crowell will be the starter because he appears the most well rounded; West has a plow-forward play style that might be in better shape with the healthy offensive line; Johnson is a dynamic pass-catching back with elusiveness. I'm with the Duke, and all 3 should get touches, but who knows?
TE - Housler vs Barnidge: This is the closest thing to competition in the receiving corps we'll have due to proven talent ahead at everything else. I think Housler locks it down but both should find playing time.
RT/RG - Greco vs Schwartz vs Erving: How this eventually plays out should be interesting to watch; it's going to come down to whatever two make the most sense opening up on the line. For me, it's Erving at RG and Schwartz at RT, but it all depends.
DE - Bryant vs Starks vs Cooper vs Taylor vs A. Bryant: With Armonty Bryant and Uncle Phil healthy, there could be serious competition for the ends this year; Cooper and Taylor have to fit somewhere, and Armonty played his ass off in limited time in 2014.
CB2 - Tramon Williams vs The field: Can Justin Gilbert step up and take away the CB2 role from the veteran? Can a Ka'Waun Williams jump into the lead role, or even Pierre Desir? Is Charles Gaines capable enough to tap into finesse and take the spot?

Let's Talk Schemes, With JohnnyFire, Who Doesn't Know How Schemes Work For Shit

This was an optional point of the review, but hey, lemme attempt to work it out.
Offensive scheme: In case it wasn't obvious, with the offensive line shoring and the addition of another talented RB, the Browns are going to be working a run-first offense. Everything will be going through the ground game, meaning the interior of the line will be called on to open up big run lanes early. It also means that we're not going to be gunslinging, least of all with McCown in there. The short passing game and smart out-routes will likely be the staples for this offense until we get another weapon in 2016, so I expect Hawkins (and Johnson as an option) to get tons of looks. Long term, it’s also key that we play into what strengths Manziel actually exhibits, and not try to fit a square peg into a round hole here; Manziel's legs and deep-ball awareness can still be tapped into if asked. It's going to be a bit of a mish-mash ground-and-pound short-game offense in 2015, unless Manziel's skill set has expanded far beyond what we think.
Defensive scheme: Jim O'Neill's D shouldn't be changing up too much, only becoming expanded on with more playmakers. O'Neill suggested that although the Browns are currently running a 3-4, the talent they have could open up some 4-3 sets (likely meaning we would see a front 4 of Bryant/TayloShelton/Starks or Cooper, with a 3-rush LB of KrugeDansby/Mingo. That's very intriguing.) I wish I could go more technical into this, but quite honestly, it's not my forte; I just know that Pettine and O'Neill wanted a strong all-around D, and although we need to see what the new additions actually do, on paper, it looks like a strong squad now and moving forward.

Schedule Predictions

The Browns have a tougher schedule than they did in 2014, and with much of the same defense and an offense in transition, they went 7-9. The offense is now in limbo while the defense got better, so...ehhhhhh? I'll aim for as reasonable as I can.
Week 1: @ New York Jets: New York's revamped D is solid, but their offense could still sink them. If the Browns can make their offense falter early, they'll have a chance, but winning week 1 on the road isn't exactly easy. Let's assume the D is up to the challenge for NYJ right off the bat and make this a close defensive effort on both fronts, with Cleveland losing a tough one. Cleveland loses 17-13 (0-1)
Week 2: vs Tennessee Titans: Here's the coming out party for this defense and the first chance to see if this offense is good enough. Tennessee's team is just flatly lacking in overall talent right now, although they do have some playmakers here. The last thing the Browns want is to get spanked by oft-mocked-to-them Mariota. I think they can pull off a motivated home opener win. Cleveland wins 20-14 (1-1)
Week 3: vs Oakland Raiders: Oakland, in my view, had a pretty solid draft, but I'm not sure they've entirely turned the corner, even with the emergence of Derek Carr. I think a strong defensive front and the strong secondary can keep him in check long enough for whoever is slinging the ball to keep it together into a solid but close win. Cleveland wins 24-21 (2-1)
Week 4: @ San Diego Chargers: Unfortunately I can't see Cleveland heading out to the West Coast and dominating a still fairly tough Chargers team. Unless they rattle Rivers hard and fast right off the bat, but that's doubtful honestly. They could keep it competitive though. Cleveland loses 28-17 (2-2)
Week 5: @ Baltimore Ravens: The Browns have not won in Baltimore since 2007, and only 3 times since 1999. That's...bad. And Baltimore is still good enough to keep that trend up I fear after an offensive reload. Cleveland loses 35-20 (2-3)
Week 6: vs Denver Broncos: You have no idea how much I'd love to spank Peyton Manning at home, and I'd imagine this will probably be closer with the Browns getting some attention against the tougher team. But I can't doubt Denver just yet; I do think the downfall for Denver may be on the horizon, but not yet. Cleveland loses 31-21 (2-4)
Week 7: @ St. Louis Rams: Another "Tough D vs so-so Offense" matchup. My hope is by now the offense will have settled in with whoever's at the helm (I'd assume Manziel by this point) and can get the big road win, even though this could be a toss up if Nick Foles and the strong D finally make this St. Louis's "next year" we've been waiting on. Ah, fuck it. Let's call it an upset. Cleveland wins 18-17. (3-4)
Week 8: vs Arizona Cardinals: I have pretty high hopes for Arizona if they stay healthy, and at the mid-point of the season, that's pretty much all it will come down to. This is the start of a tough 3-game swing for Cleveland and if Carson and the D remains upright, I think they dispatch the Browns post haste. Cleveland loses 24-13 (3-5)
Week 9: @ Cincinnati Bengals: ALERT! ALERT! Primetime Andy Dalton Game! Primetime Andy Dalton Game! We probably will actually get blown out as revenge for last season, but fuck it, I have to rip on someone other than my own team at some point in these predictions! Cleveland wins 24-21 (4-5)
Week 10: @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Fucking Steelers with their good drafting and respectable organization and history of winning and Super Bowls. And then they have a solid 2015 draft too. But hey, their RB smokes weed and got caught and got suspended everyone point and laugh, please, my self esteem needs it, HAHAHAHA--we're not winning this game are we? Cleveland loses 30-13 (4-6)
Week 11: Bye
Week 12: vs Baltimore Ravens: Monday Night Football in Cleveland, OH. Reason dictates that this will be the biggest game of Cleveland's season, and coming off the bye and a tough in-division loss to Pittsburgh, I'm going to buck the trend here and say that Cleveland pulls off the upset and wins a key game in primetime in the division, shutting down the revamped offense and Sam the Eagle. Cleveland wins 27-21 (5-6)
Week 13: vs Cincinnati Bengals: Damnit, I wanted two games with Primetime Andy Dalton. If we take the jokes aside, the Bengals are a strong squad that will be in playoff contention, and this late in the season, this will probably be a must-win for them. Cleveland loses 28-14 (5-7)
Week 14: vs San Francisco 49ers: I honestly feel bad for San Francisco at this point. They're probably not going to completely fall off, but coming into a year wish such promise, there has just been so much turnover in that organization this year it's almost mind numbing. I'd hope Cleveland can keep their heads up and take advantage of it. Cleveland wins 31-18 (6-7)
Week 15: @ Seattle Seahawks: ......fuck. Cleveland loses 35-13 (6-8)
Week 16: @ Kansas City Chiefs: Because going from the loudest stadium in the NFL to the second loudest stadium in the NFL is just a thing that happens. Cleveland loses 27-24 (6-9)
Week 17: vs Pittsburgh Steelers: There is nothing more important in any given season than logging a win against the fucking Pittsburgh Steelers. At least until we get over this mental and metaphysical hump that has held the Browns down for so damn long in their own wallowing. After two tough challenges on the road, I think the Browns can pull off one season-ending upset in spite of everything to end the season strong and accomplish two things: match last year's record without an elite QB, and hit .500 in the division. Cleveland wins 17-14 (7-9)

Verdict:

Reasonably, I'd say between 6-10 (drop either the STL or PIT game) and 8-8 (win against SD early?) is pretty solid. Our offense just plainly is not good enough right now. If Cleveland shows up for some big games or takes advantage of their strength on defense early, they might be able to break .500, but I don't see this squad hitting the playoffs in 2015. The lack of a franchise QB limits my optimism for toss ups.

Wrap-Up

I said last year that the most important thing for Cleveland in 2014 was not to make a playoff push or to win "x" amount of games; it was to facilitate a culture change, to get away from the "LOLBROWNS" and the "woe is me" that has permeated the organization since their return from expansion. Many people have tried to make that happen, but stupid moves, or regressions, or giving up too early, or just plainly getting the wrong players at the wrong time, it's all added up to misery. With that said...this is the closest I've seen this team to having a long-term plan in place to get over that hump. Yes, you have some issues on offense, but the offseason, the draft, the move to get more compensatory picks in 2016, the feeling that Pettine and Farmer are locked in, it's a good feeling.
Are the Browns going to light the world on fire in 2015? No. But they don't need to right now. Get that defense up to working speed. Keep the run game and offensive line strong. Don't panic fire Pettine or Farmer because things don't add up to a 10-6 finish. Don't start scrambling around or getting cheeky with your QB if things go crazy. I no longer see this team as rebuilding, but rather finally fucking building; investing heavily in the trenches and crafting a strong defense. There have been growing pains of this regime, but unlike in the Holmgren era, or the Policy era, or the Savage era, it doesn't feel for naught. There is something being established, and if we as fans can have some patience for a change, I think we could see the second half of this decade be very, very fun if the course stays.
...or we'll be LOLBROWNS again. Such is the cycle of Browns fans.
Special thanks to admiralkit, TheFencingCoach, skepticismissurvival, TheVetNoob, everyone over on /Browns, and Dusty Rhodes. We been through some Hard Times, bay-beh.
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Official Weekly Summary (Apr 21 - Apr 27, 2017)

Weekly Summary (Apr 21 - Apr 27, 2017)
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